Explaining the Recent Drops in Productivity
The final possibility — and the one that the paper by Mr Brynjolfsson and his co-authors unsurprisingly believes — is that this is the lull before a storm. It argues that the same productivity pause happened with electricity in the 1920s. It takes time for a new GPT to transform an economy.
Today, AI is in its earliest stages. Soon, they argue, it will change everything. This is consistent with the finding of Profs Crafts and Mills that past productivity performance is a poor forecaster of future performance.